St John’s, Nov 05: A major new study has uncovered a $360 billion gulf in the potential economic benefits of AI between Commonwealth nations best prepared to embrace the technology and those struggling to keep pace.
The divide is almost equivalent to the entire annual economic output of Egypt or Chile, and more than twice the $174.3 billion provided in international development aid by major donor countries last year.
The findings raise fears that the technological revolution, already transforming businesses and workplaces around the world, could deepen the inequalities separating wealthy countries from developing economies.
The Ayre Index, launched at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda, drew on 1,128 research sources and is the first comparable assessment to examine the readiness of all 56 Commonwealth countries to help the 732 million young people aged between 15 and 29 in the Commonwealth take advantage of artificial intelligence.
Produced by the new think tank established by Antiguan-Canadian philanthropist Calvin Ayre, it found that just 15 countries met the benchmark for AI readiness, leaving 41 countries facing significant obstacles to benefiting from the technology.
Singapore leads the Index with 77.6 points out of 100, followed by Malta (75.0), Australia (71.0), the United Kingdom (70.8) and Canada (70.2). Lesotho (27.8) and Malawi (26.3) sit at the bottom. Only three of the Commonwealth's 21 African countries — Mauritius (eighth), South Africa (thirteenth) and Nigeria (fifteenth) — meet the study's readiness benchmark.
The $360 billion disparity
To illustrate the economic scale of artificial intelligence, researchers applied economic scenarios developed by the International Monetary Fund to all 56 Commonwealth countries.
Under the study's moderate scenario, the 15 countries meeting its youth AI readiness benchmark have a combined potential AI impact on GDP of US$389.2 billion after ten years. For the 41 countries below the benchmark, the equivalent potential economic opportunity is US$29.2 billion.
The potential impact AI could have on the level of GDP after ten years amounts to US$126.1 billion for the United Kingdom, US$79.1 billion for India, US$73.1 billion for Canada and US$56.7 billion for Australia. Among those below the benchmark, Bangladesh has an opportunity of US$8.2 billion, Pakistan US$8.1 billion, Kenya about US$2 billion and Ghana US$1.7 billion.
The gap reflects differences in the size and economic classification of the countries concerned but it provides a stark illustration of the scale of potential AI-related economic gains and underlines the importance of ensuring that countries with weaker foundations are better equipped to benefit from the AI revolution.
Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank, said:
“I’ve spent my life in businesses where new technology changes everything, and I know you can’t stand still. AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created. But this is not a race that only the biggest or richest countries can win. What matters is giving young people the skills and the chance to get ahead – whether to start businesses, find jobs or build something for themselves. Some Commonwealth countries are ahead, others have catching up to do. Nobody can afford to be complacent. That’s why we created this Index. It shows countries where they stand, what they’re getting right and where they need to do better. Governments now have to decide what they’re going to do about it.”
A mobile signal is not enough
The research reveals how starkly the ability to benefit from AI differs between countries. In Togo, 4G coverage reaches 99.7% of the population, yet only 44.9% of young people report using the internet. In Malawi, the World Bank found electricity reaches just 15.6% of the population, while reported youth internet use stands at 27.4%. In Papua New Guinea, the cost of mobile data is more than 30% of the income of the poorest 40% of the population.
Enthusiasm for AI can also run ahead of practical skills. About 90% of young Nigerian respondents and 76.3% of young Bangladeshi respondents in surveys examined by researchers expected to use AI for education or work within the following year. Yet Nigeria scored 0.8 out of 10 and Bangladesh 2.3 on the study’s measures of conventional digital capability.
The research also shows that stronger AI readiness scores do not necessarily translate into secure employment. South Africa reaches the benchmark but records unemployment of 46.3% among its young labour force. India, home to 381.8 million people aged 15 to 29 and ranked eleventh, scores 60.6 overall, yet 85.8% of young workers are employed informally.
The study also reveals how little governments know about the ability of their younger populations to use artificial intelligence effectively. Of the 1,128 sources examined, only 59 sources other than population statistics covered the full 15-to-29 age group. In many Commonwealth countries, governments have little comparable evidence of how young people use AI, how well they understand it or whether it is improving their opportunities.
Antigua and Barbuda, which is hosting the Commonwealth meeting, ranks twenty-seventh with a readiness score of 45.2. Although its basic digital infrastructure is relatively strong, the study finds significant gaps in the evidence about young people's AI capabilities and use. The country has usable values for just 41 of the 102 indicators included in the ranking and scores 70.6 on the separate Data Gap Index, where higher figures indicate more missing information.
The Bahamas has the largest weighted data gap in the study, with missing evidence for 78 of its 111 indicators. Dominica and Saint Kitts and Nevis each lack evidence for 79 indicators. The researchers caution that missing evidence should not be mistaken for missing ability and that without better information governments will struggle to identify where investment could make the greatest difference.
Artificial intelligence also offers Commonwealth members considerable potential to create new employment and business opportunities for young people. Stronger practical digital skills, closer links between education and employment and greater support for young entrepreneurs will help the nations capitalise on the AI revolution and turn that potential into productive businesses, better jobs and long-term economic growth.
The White Paper identifies five priorities to ensure the economic benefits of AI are shared more equitably across the Commonwealth: affordable and reliable access to technology; education that develops practical skills; stronger routes from training into employment and enterprise; AI tools suited to local languages and needs; and safeguards that enable young people to question automated decisions.
It calls on governments, educators and development partners to better understand the particular barriers young people face in each country before deciding where investment can make the greatest impact.
Professor C. Justin Robinson, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal of the University of the West Indies, Five Islands Campus, said:
“We need to make sure that the next generation will be able to do more than just consume AI products made elsewhere. Access must come with its own agency and a real equitable stake in how these systems are governed.
“Young people need to be equipped to question these new tools, to improve them and to be supported in building alternatives suited to their own needs. Whether that happens, will depend on choices made now. This index gives us a clearer view of where those choices are most urgent. We should use it.”
